Sam’s SuperDraft Studs and StatHero Thoughts – 2020 MASTERS

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Course: Augusta National Golf Club

Fast Facts

• Par 72, 7475 yards
• Fairways: Bermuda
• Rough: Rye and Bluegrass
• Greens: Bentgrass (Lightning fast; probably 13+ on the stimp or closer to 14)
• Average Green Size: 6500 sq. ft. (about average for the TOUR)
• Water Hazards: 6
• Field: 93 players; Cut is Top 50 and ties
• 18 Hole Stroke Average: 73.59 (+1.59 OVER par)
• Average Cutline over the last 10 years: +5
• Par 5 Scoring Key with nearly 40% of DK points coming from Par 5s and all playing under par

Course and Weather Notes: The Masters is here, and I couldn’t really be more excited… I did an in-depth full course/tournament preview along with analysis and possible winners in my article that is already posted at DFSKarma.com so check that out here!

WEATHER NOTE: It does seem like the course is getting pounded with rain the last few days and it’s expected to continue all 4 days of the tournament (which blows), so I think we can start to give even a little more weight to the bombers of the field and use it as a tiebreaker for sure between players along with really giving a bump down to the much shorter hitters

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: APP Blend (175+ yards)
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Driving Distance)
• SG: Putting (emphasis on FAST greens/Bentgrass)
• SG: T2G
• GIRs Gained
• BoB Gained
• SG: ARG

SuperDraft Ranks and Thoughts

Both DFSKarma and myself have been getting more and more exposure and interest to SuperDraft and I wanted to begin to give some thoughts and ranks for those contests as they do things a little bit differently and although I’m still new and learning I think there is a definite edge to be had with less sharks, no salary cap to worry about, and a different roster construction compared to FanDuel and DraftKings. Below I will post how scoring is done and my favorite 15 guys to build in a 6-person lineup. There are no salaries so if you wanted to take the top 6 ranked players in the world, you can do that if you please (doesn’t seem like a +EV strategy). As you’ll note, the lower quality player, the higher the multiplier they get for fantasy points and the top dogs, such as DJ/Fleetwood/Brooks, etc won’t get nearly the same bonuses but can be expected to outperform the lower tier guys.

This year at Augusta presents an interesting test, as always, as 93 players tee it up for the annual tradition, granted 7 months late, in what should be a slightly different course layout and even more unpredictability than usual. As I have stated in my preview article, we can easily trim down this field to a more manageable 60-65 as Augusta gives a lifetime exemption to all former winners and almost all of them aren’t in any sort of contention to compete at the top of the leaderboard, let alone make the cut (i.e. lots of older guys who are in their 60s and some amateurs from lower TOURs around the world). The cut is top 50 and ties so we already have an expected 55-60% making the weekend and when we remove the “non-factors” if you will, we can expect more lineups to have the 6/6 through the cut and we thus need to target birdie makers who have finishing points upside. Further, it is imperative to have Augusta experience, at least in year’s past, to finish well here so I will definitely favor more and more the guys with several rounds, at least, under their belt, guys who have driving distance, and who can handle fast greens.

I think this week will be even more interesting as people try to load up on the favorites, and while a lineup of DJ/Rahm/Justin Thomas/Xander Schauffele sounds mighty appealing, as we know from the last 50 years of golf, it rarely works out that the top 3, or 4 of the 6 or 7 favorites end up all at the top of the leaderboard together. I’m targeting guys mostly that have a great multiplier but also have Augusta experience, so I don’t risk 6/6 upside but also have an edge if the lower owned player makes the weekend and goes low a round or two. I think my 2 favorite high multipliers this week are Lee Westwood and Cam Smith and while I expect Smith to have decent ownership, his multiplier is one of the best for a guy I think can definitely finish in the Top 10. In the case of Westwood, his overall “win equity” isn’t very much but he has the best course history of anyone in the field with 8 straight made cuts that includes 3 Top 10s and 2 Top 20s in that span. Further, he’s playing some great golf right now over on the Euro Tour with 5 Top 20 finishes in his last 7 starts. As for the studs, I like Rahm/DJ/Justin Thomas/Hideki, but I will most likely only use 2 or so of them in each lineup to make sure I can stay unique. Some low owned guys that definitely carry risk that I like would include 1) Munoz, who is playing great this season but is a “debutant” so could struggle without knowing the course, 2) Bernd Wiesberger who has made all 4 cuts at Augusta and is in good form on the Euro Tour, and 3) Sungjae Im, who is also playing his first Masters but is a tremendous young talent, having one on TOUR this season at the Honda Classic.

Below is my table of 15 guys I’m interested in and sign up for core plays to see my SD core for the week!

StatHero Ranks and Thoughts

Several months ago, we partnered with a very innovative fantasy company called StatHero and what makes them so enticing is similar to betting, you’re not competing against 100k people in a GPP contest with less than a 0.001% chance of winning but rather playing against them. The rules are simple, you beat the “StatHero” team, you move on, and if you don’t, you lose. The goal is to get to the end and either decide with other users if you want to split the pot or you can keep playing to try to get the mega prize. One of the bigger advantages is that you can actually see StatHero’s lineup before you construct your own so you know what you’re up against and how contrarian/different you want to get. Below I will post the scoring format and will give my thoughts for how I would construct this week as well as show what StatHero is using for Round 1.

Note that for PGA it is round by round, not the full tournament, and you have an “MVP” spot in which you get 2x points. You get to pick 5 players, but you have to be careful because once you use players in a round, if you advance, you can’t use the same players again.

It’s super fun and we had a TON of success last year in NFL so go download it on the Apple Store and Android users should be able to download from the Google Play store very, very soon.

StatHero Lineup: Masters Round 1 ($15 entry, $10,000 up top!)

CPT – Tyrrell Hatton

Player 1) Sungjae Im

Player 2) Matthew Wolff

Player 3) Tiger Woods

Player 4) Paul Casey

In my humble opinion, I don’t think this lineup will make a lot of noise as a few of these guys are ones I don’t have a ton of interest in, as Hatton has been hot but if the putter cools off I’m not sure where he’ll be… Wolff has lost some form lately and is someone I’m betting to miss the cut. Tiger, well we all know I love Tiger, but traditionally his first rounds aren’t great and he’s in the morning with a stiff back… and lastly Casey… who knows what we’ll get from him as his course history is strong but he hasn’t exactly been lighting it up. In the interest of trying to save players, I don’t think you have to “full stack” your R1 lineup in anyway, not to say you can’t use some of the top guys per Vegas odds, but I think it’s better to save them. There are a few guys that I really like, and have traditionally, started out hot and even if they fizzle the rest of the tournament, we only need them for 1 round!

Favorite CPT Options (no particular order)

Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Hideki Matsuyama, Adam Scott, Bubba Watson, Bryson DeChambeau

Favorite Fill-In Options (no particular order)

Justin Rose, Bubba Watson, Jordan Spieth (if you’re feeling FRISKY, he normally starts off hot), Scottie Scheffler, Adam Scott, Abraham Ancer, 1 or 2 of Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Si Woo Kim (risky with big upside), Corey Conners (risky with big upside)

StatHero and SuperDraft Scoring

Scoring	Points
Double Eagle	13
Eagle	8
Birdie	3
Par	1
Bogey	-0.5
Double Bogey	-1
Triple Bogey	-1.5
Quad Bogey	-2
Hole In One	10
Finish	Points		Finish	Points
1st	30		16th	5
2nd	20		17th	5
3rd	18		18th	5
4th	16		19th	5
5th	14		20th	5
6th	12		21st	4
7th	10		22nd	4
8th	9		23rd	4
9th	8		24th	4
10th	7		25th	4
11th	6		26th	3
12th	6		27th	3
13th	6		28th	3
14th	6		29th	3
15th	6		30th	3

The post Sam’s SuperDraft Studs and StatHero Thoughts – 2020 MASTERS appeared first on DFS Karma.

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