- Following Trevor Bauer and tied with Jacob deGrom, Yu Darvish is second-favorite in National League Cy Young odds
- The Chicago Cubs hold an 18-10 record so far and Darvish’s dominance on the mound has been a big part of that
- See the latest NL Cy Young odds and betting analysis, below
The National League Cy Young odds have moved dramatically over the last week. Chicago Cubs right-hander Yu Darvish was way out at +1550, on average, on August 18th, but that price is down to +500. Darvish is right in the mix to win the award, sitting as joint-second favorite behind Trevor Bauer.
Atlanta’s Max Fried has also seen his price shorten significantly, moving from +1200 to +600, on average. DraftKings is the most optimistic on the 26-year-old, setting him at +550.
National League Cy Young Odds
| Player | Odds at DraftKings |
|---|---|
| Trevor Bauer (Cincinnati Reds) | +350 |
| Yu Darvish (Chicago Cubs) | +500 |
| Jacob deGrom (New York Mets) | +500 |
| Max Fried (Atlanta Braves) | +550 |
| Sonny Gray (Cincinnati Reds) | +750 |
| Dinelson Lamet (San Diego Padres) | +1200 |
| Aaron Nola (Philadelphia Phillies) | +1200 |
| Max Scherzer (Washington Nationals) | +2000 |
| Patrick Corbin (Washington Nationals) | +2200 |
| Jack Flaherty (St Louis Cardinals) | +2200 |
| German Marquez (Colorado Rockies) | +2200 |
| Kyle Hendricks (Chicago Cubs) | +2500 |
| Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers) | +3000 |
| Walker Buehler (Los Angeles Dodgers) | +3300 |
| Luis Castillo (Cincinnati Reds) | +3300 |
| Josh Hader (Milwaukee Brewers) | +5000 |
| Julio Urias (Los Angeles Dodgers) | +6000 |
| Chris Paddack (San Diego Padres) | +6600 |
| Garrett Richards (San Diego Padres) | +6600 |
| Zack Wheeler (Philadelphia Phillies) | +6600 |
Odds as of August 25.
Max Scherzer, Luis Castillo, and Jack Flaherty have all faded. Castillo has moved the most – his average price is up to +2500 in the latest NL Cy Young odds. It was +1200 on the 18th.
Darvish Dominating
Since giving up three runs in his first start of the season, Darvish has seen his ERA drop with each appearance. He has given up four earned runs, combined, in four August starts and racked up 32 strikeouts in the process.
Walks have haunted Darvish in the past. His walk rate is a career low 4.2% in 2020, a marked improvement from 7.7% in 2019 and over 11% the year before. The stuff has always been great (95th percentile in fastball spin rate this season), but Darvish is now combining that with command. A 0.92 WHIP is sixth-best among starters in the National League.
How Darvish Has Improved
Darvish is throwing his cutter much more (48.6% of the time, up from 36.% in 2019 and 13.5% in 2018). It’s setting up his fastball as a putaway pitch and helping to keep hitters off balance. Hitters have a measly .195 expected weighted on-base average against Darvish’s four-seamer.
Yu Darvish, Ridiculous 85mph Slider…Part san. 😳
And pitching with 🔥
10th K. pic.twitter.com/AIYIfC4lCL
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 23, 2020
Where other teams have leaned heavily on their bullpens, the Cubs have let their starters go deep. Darvish and his teammate Kyle Hendricks rank joint-third and first respectively in NL innings pitched. In such a short season, pitching more innings could be particularly important when it comes to Cy Young voting.
Strong Competition
Darvish has the pedigree to attract bettors, and he has pitched wonderfully in August. Both will have contributed to his odds improving so rapidly. This is a competitive market, though, and with starters unlikely to pitch more than 11 or 12 times this year, one poor outing will have a huge impact.
Bauer, the betting favorite, broke a Reds franchise record by recording 49 strikeouts in his first five starts. His Monday outing against the Brewers was his worst of the season, however, as he gave up four earned runs and two long balls. His ERA has moved up to 1.65.
You had us at “beer” @BauerOutage. 14 Ks in your next two starts: you break the record, we’ll make these. https://t.co/SESOvH2pA0 pic.twitter.com/AxXGI08Itx
— Budweiser (@budweiserusa) August 18, 2020
The former Cleveland Indian has been dealing all year. He leads the league in expected ERA and his 39.8% strikeout rate is the best in the NL. Bauer is clearly a strong contender to win the Cy Young, and even at +350 looks like a good bet.
Another Cincinnati Red, Luis Castillo, has posted solid expected numbers so far, but hasn’t got the results he deserves. There’s limited time to bring that 4.40 ERA down to something that can contend for the Cy Young. That said, with how little hard contact he’s allowing, he could be a decent longshot bet at +3300.
The post Darvish’s Cy Young Odds Tied with deGrom for Second-Best appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.
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