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Nick Shiambouros is back with two Saturday selections from the outstanding Saratoga card…
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The MLB season isn’t even two weeks old and Saturday will already mark the fifth meeting between the Cincinnati Reds and Detroit Tigers. Detroit took two of three from Cincinnati last weekend, and owns a better overall record coming in, yet are still a home underdog at Comerica Park Saturday versus the Reds.
Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati Reds | -152 | -1.5 (+100) | Over 9.0 (-115) |
Detroit Tigers | +140 | +1.5 (-120) | Under 9.0 (-115) |
Odds taken July 31st.
Cincy opened as a -152 favorite in the Reds vs Tigers odds in a game that features a total of 9. Trevor Bauer will get the ball for Cincinnati when the two teams take the field at 1:10 pm EST, and he’ll be looking to repeat the dominant performance he had against Detroit last Sunday.
In his first start of the season, Bauer was simply outstanding. He held the Tigers to just two hits over 6.1 innings and the lone blemish on his boxscore was a solo home run to Niko Goodrum.
Trevor Bauer, Filthy 81mph Curveball. 😷 pic.twitter.com/7e1GAcGohO
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 26, 2020
The 29-year-old looked like the 2018 All-Star version of himself, striking out 13 batters and issuing just a single walk. He was in complete control of his full arsenal of pitches, and allowed only 25% of the hitters he faced to make hard contact.
Trevor Bauer faking a throw to the outfield 😂
6.1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 13 K’s 🔥 pic.twitter.com/d2qrhqzagy
— Sports = Life (@SportzzTweetzz) July 26, 2020
Bauer has plenty of experience against this Tigers lineup, having spent most of the past seven seasons in Cleveland. He owns a 10-6 lifetime mark versus them, and has a history of pitching well at Comerica Park. The right-hander is 5-2 in Detroit, with a 3.31 ERA and a 52-10 strikeout-to-walk rate.
Player | AB | H | HR | RBI | K | AVG. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Niko Goodrum | 19 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 7 | .368 |
Jonathan Schoop | 26 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 8 | .261 |
Miguel Cabrera | 40 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 8 | .300 |
C.J. Cron | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .143 |
Harold Castro | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | .300 |
Victor Reyes | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .143 |
Christin Stewart | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | .200 |
Austine Romine | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | .250 |
Jacoby Jones | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .250 |
Speaking of strikeouts, Detroit’s number two through five hitters were a combined 0-11, with six strikeouts in their first meeting versus Bauer.
While Bauer shined in his season debut, the same cannot be said for Tigers starter Michael Fulmer. The 27-year-old was hit hard by KC of all teams, surrendering four runs in just 2.2 innings of work.
We hear from Michael Fulmer, who gives up three homers in his first start back from Tommy John surgery. pic.twitter.com/2iYCrBwWRe
— FOX Sports Detroit (@FOXSportsDet) July 28, 2020
The outing was his first since undergoing Tommy John surgery that forced him to miss the entire 2019 season. After a stellar rookie year in 2016, Fulmer has steadily gone down hill. 2018 was especially tough to watch, as he won just three of his 24 starts and posted a career worst 4.69 ERA.
Player | AB | H | HR | RBI | K | AVG. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Shogo Akiyama | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
Joey Votto | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 |
Eugenio Suarez | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | .333 |
Mike Moustakas | 10 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | .300 |
Nicholas Castellanos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
Jesse Winker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
Nick Senzel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
Freddy Galvis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
Tucker Barnhart | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 |
The Reds organization has only faced Fulmer once, so their 2020 lineup has little experience against him. Nevertheless, Cincy’s offense is quite formidable, ranking third in runs scored per game (6.17) entering play Friday.
On paper this game is a mismatch. The Reds are expected to compete for a playoff spot in the NL, while the Tigers are projected to finish with the third fewest wins.
Cincy has a big advantage in the starting pitching department with Bauer, and its offense has been much stronger to start the season than Detroit’s. Through the first seven games of the season, the Tigers have averaged just four runs per outing, and in games where they’ve faced an elite starter (vs Bauer, and Sonny Gray), they’ve scored only four runs total.
Pick: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+100)
The post Reds vs Tigers Picks and Odds – Aug 1 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.
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Since a split decision win over Darren Stewart in his UFC debut, Shahbazyan has finished each of his last three opponents in the first round. This includes a tremendous head kick knockout of Brad Tavares in his last fight. Shahbazyan has solid grappling, displaying it at the UFC-level, but that likely won’t matter in this fight. Instead, he’s going to rely on his striking and power. Shahbazyan has ended 9 of his last 11 wins via (T)KO with each of his 10 finishes coming in the first round.
Derek Brunson is an athletic fighter with powerful striking and strong wrestling. He has a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu if this fight hits the ground, as well, but Brunson has the defensive wrestling to keep it standing. He’s ended 11 of his 20 wins via (T)KO with many coming in the first round. Brunson has also been knocked out in 5 of his 7 losses. Excluding a questionable decision loss to Anderson Silva, Brunson has only lost to elite competition (Israel Adesanya, Jacare Souza, Robert Whittaker) in recent fights.
Shahbazyan is a ridiculous -315 favorite with -150 odds to win inside the distance. I expect his power to be far too much for Brunson to handle early in this fight. Brunson certainly has the power to finish this fight early as well, but I trust Shahbazyan’s chin to hold up much more than I trust Brunson’s.
Emmers gets a great matchup against Vince Cachero this weekend. Cachero is taking the fight on short notice and fighting up a weight class. Emmers will have a significant height and reach advantage, allowing him to dictate where the fight takes place. Cachero does have solid boxing, but it’s difficult to believe he’ll work his way inside on Emmers in this fight.
I expect Emmers to be able to dictate if he wants to take this fight to the ground, as well. He’s going to be the significantly larger and stronger fighter. He flashed takedown potential in his first UFC fight, and he is likely to find success if he chooses in this fight.
Emmers is a -335 favorite with +135 odds to win inside the distance. He was originally an underdog before taking this short notice fight, causing his price tag to sit at $7.8K. Emmers is a must play in cash games and can be used in GPPs, as well.
Johnny Munoz Jr. stepped in on short notice to fight Maness. This fight is relatively simple from a fight script perspective. Maness will be looking to utilize his striking while Munoz will look to take him down and advance position. The major issue with Munoz is that wrestling is tiring and he’s taking this fight on short notice. It’s unlikely his cardio holds up if he doesn’t end this fight early. That will allow Maness to take over, assuming Munoz can get early takedowns.
Because it’s a late notice fight, each fighter is $7.2K on DraftKings, meaning the winner will likely be on the optimal lineup. Maness is currently a -140 favorite with +300 odds to win inside the distance. I trust him more because of his clear striking advantage and likely cardio advantage. Either side of this fight can be used in tournaments, but Maness is another must play in cash games.
The post Fantasy MMA – UFC DraftKings Picks – UFC on ESPN+ 31 appeared first on DFS Karma.
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MIG Run It Up Bankroll Challenge
7/31/2020 8:00 PM NBA Basketball 714 San Antonio Spurs* +3½ @ 1.952(5Dimes)
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The NBA regular season is back in full swing, and with it comes some tremendous matchups between playoff teams. One of the most intriguing of those games is Saturday’s contest that will feature the Miami Heat and the Denver Nuggets.
Denver and Miami are both set to resume seasons that were going very well, but it’s Nikola Jokic and company that have the edge in the Heat vs Nuggets odds.
Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Miami Heat | +2 (-110) | +100 | O 211 (-110) |
Denver Nuggets | -2 (-110) | -118 | U 211 (-110) |
Odds taken July 31
This will be the first regular season matchup of the restart for both teams, so the biggest narrative for both sides will be the inevitable rust that has to be shaken off. Both teams have looked good in scrimmage action so far, but no team in the entire league is back to midseason form yet.
The long layoff has obviously thrown a wrench into the momentum of the 2019-20 NBA season, but the information gleaned from earlier in the year can still be valuable. One piece of that information pertaining to this game is that, in their respective situations, a look at the Nuggets vs Heat betting trends shows that neither Miami or Denver has performed very well.
As an underdog, the Heat have posted a record of 9-11-1. Denver, as a favorite, sit at a similarly underwhelming 22-24-3. These marks hold with the teams’ overall ATS records, both Miami’s 33-30-2 and Denver’s 29-32-4.
Nothing knocks the rust off like stringing together a few big shots, and no team is more dangerous in that situation than Miami. If the Nuggets are weak on the perimeter, Miami can do some damage.
The Heat are first in the NBA in three-point shooting at 38.3%, and they aren’t conservative about taking those shots, ranking in the top third of the league in attempts. Duncan Robinson leads the team, knocking down 44.8% of his shots on 8.4 attempts per game.
Through the scrimmages, a key issue for the Nuggets was defending the three ball. If that problem already exists, it could be exploited by Miami to great success on Saturday.
This matchup is one of the most underrated of the league’s re-opening weekend. Yes, Lakers-Clippers was tremendous, and games like Rockets-Mavericks and Bucks-Celtics will be fun, but Nuggets-Heat features two playoff teams who, on paper, are about as close as it gets. The Nuggets twitter account put out a graphic that lays this out.
Sizing up the competition.
See you Saturday @MiamiHEAT! pic.twitter.com/2t4JAR2exk
— Denver Nuggets (@nuggets) July 30, 2020
Things are also tight when it comes to points per game (slight edge to Miami), three-point percentage (Miami), and field goal percentage (even).
Each of these teams has a chance to make a strong playoff run, but in this matchup, it’s Denver that has the edge. There are really two key factors here that give Mike Malone’s team the advantage.
The first is a couple of high-level creators on offense. Nikola Jokic is a tremendous passing big man, and Jamal Murray is becoming one of the great offensive guards in the league. The roster in Miami is a strong, well-balanced one, but it doesn’t have the sort of passers and offense-generators that Denver does.
Secondly, the deep Nugget bench is a huge asset. With a unit that includes Michael Porter Jr, Mason Plumlee, Jerami Grant, and Will Barton, plus a few other productive NBA role players, Denver has a deeper pool of talent to dip into. As guys work back into shape in the bubble, fresh legs are a big advantage.
The pick: Nuggets ML (-118)
The post Heat vs Nuggets Picks and Odds – August 1 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.
The Toronto Raptors and Los Angeles Lakers, the teams owning the third and second-best records in the NBA respectively, matchup on August 1 in Orlando.
It will be Toronto’s first competitive game in the bubble – they are competing for the two seed with the Boston Celtics to gain a potentially more favorable first-round matchup. The Lakers were in action on Thursday, playing out an epic with the Clippers and eventually coming out on top, thanks to a big night from Anthony Davis.
FanDuel’s latest Toronto Raptors vs Los Angeles Lakers odds have the Lakers as 3.5-point favourites – what’s the best bet?
Team | Spread | Moneyline Odds at Fanduel | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Toronto Raptors | +3.5 (-110) | +136 | O 215.5 (-110) |
Los Angeles Lakers | -3.5 (-110) | -162 | U 215.5 (-110) |
Odds taken July 31
The non-LeBron minutes have been a problem this season. A lack of ball handling has hampered them offensively when James sits. With the Clippers surging, Anthony Davis took charge, playing the five on Thursday night, hitting consecutive treys to halt the Clippers’ run, and playing his Defensive-Player-of-the-Year-best at the other end.
With the floor spread and everyone a threat from deep, Davis was given space to work and he showed his range of scoring, but it was the spell without LeBron that was perhaps most impressive.
34 for AD ‼️💪@AntDavis23’s game-high 34 PTS guide the @Lakers to victory in their Orlando opener against LAC!
#LakeShow #WholeNewGame pic.twitter.com/cx8HXJoSqM— NBA (@NBA) July 31, 2020
Toronto owns the second-best defensive rating in the NBA. They have size and a variety of options to throw at Davis. He was the Lakers’ main force in their loss to the Raps back in November, scoring 27 points on 50% shooting. Davis hit the ground running – how Toronto guard him will be key part of this matchup.
Nick Nurse is unafraid to try things. His boldness, and effectiveness from those decisions, makes him a frontrunner for Coach of the Year. He tried out some big lineups in the scrimmage games, putting Pascal Siakam, Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol on the court at the same time.
That is one method to combat Davis. He will bully smaller players in the post or simply shoot over them. His mobility is a factor too, of course, but size is crucial, and throwing that Raptors’ trio on the floor is one way to go. Going big makes sense against the Lakers – for large portions of the game, they will be playing one of their centers (JaVale McGee or Dwight Howard), Davis and LeBron. A back court with Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet might need the size of Siakam, Ibaka and Gasol.
I’m a little behind but not crazy about that Gasol-Ibaka-Siakam lineup for Raps.
— John Hollinger (@johnhollinger) July 28, 2020
Toronto don’t boast individual elite defenders. They are a defensive unit that is superbly coached and has no weak links. It is no fluke that they are the best non-Milwaukee team by defensive rating.
The Raps will be looking to slow Davis and LeBron down, challenging the scoring depth of this Lakers roster. Dion Waiters is competing for minutes in the playoff rotation, and after a strong performance against the Clips, Frank Vogel will no doubt be keen to see if he can back that up.
Rust was evident on the offensive for the Lakers at times on Thursday. There were plenty of turnovers, James struggled from the field, and they had periods where they struggled to get good looks. The Clippers defended well, and the same can be expected of Toronto.
LeBron clamps Kawhi and Paul George in the final seconds.
That’s championship defense. pic.twitter.com/y6PnIUOvBV
— Legion Hoops (@LegionHoops) July 31, 2020
These are not just two of the top three by record, they are two of the top three defensively. Both are middle of the pack in pace. Toronto are 14th in offense and are playing their first competitive game in four months.
Defense could dominate offense in this weekend’s game – a low-scoring encounter is likely.
Pick: Under 215.5 points (-110)
The post Lakers vs Raptors Odds, Lines and Spread appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.
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The first installment of baseball’s greatest rivalry will take place Friday at 7:05 pm EST in the Bronx. The Boston Red Sox, who enter play with a below .500 record, will face the AL East favorite New York Yankees, who look primed to make a run at the title.
Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total at BetMGM |
---|---|---|---|
Boston Red Sox | +195 | +1.5 (-105) | Over 10.5 (-110) |
New York Yankees | -222 | -1.5 (-115) | Under 10.5 (-110) |
Odds taken July 30th.
New York opened as a -222 favorite in the Red Sox vs Yankees odds for good reason. They were 14-5 against their arch nemesis last year and are tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the shortest World Series odds. Boston meanwhile, came into Thursday’s action with the fourth worst team ERA in all of baseball.
The Red Sox will turn to 29-year-old Ryan Weber versus the AL’s most dangerous lineup. Weber, who is somehow Boston’s fourth starter, has been used primarily as a reliever before this season, and has just 12 career starts on his resume. One of those outings came last week versus Baltimore and it was not pretty.
Anthony Santander – Baltimore Orioles (1) 2-run
Distance: 401 ft
Exit Velocity: 102.7 mph
Launch Angle: 23° pic.twitter.com/sVYtgHDfoK— MLB Home Runs (@HomeRunVideos) July 26, 2020
He allowed six runs in just 3.2 innings, walking three and failing to record a strikeout. Four of those runs came via the long ball and that doesn’t bode well against the Bronx Bombers. New York is favored to lead the Majors in home runs this season and have been heating up recently.
Player | AB | H | HR | RBI | K | AVG. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DJ LeMahieu | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .333 |
Aaron Judge | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 |
Gleybar Torres | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 |
Giancarlo Stanton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
Aaron Hicks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
Luke Voit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
Gary Sanchez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
Gio Urshela | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
Miguel Andujar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
Only a handful of Yankees have any at-bats versus Weber, but don’t let that unfamiliarity deter you from backing New York. Baltimore had limited experience versus him as well, and that didn’t stop the O’s from hitting him hard.
The last time we saw Yankees starter Jordan Montgomery on a routine basis was back in 2017. That season he made 29 starts for the Yankees, posting a 9-7 record with a respectable 2.9 WAR, and 3.88 ERA. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2018 and was limited to just two appearances last season.
Jordan Montgomery, Filthy Breaking Balls. 😷 pic.twitter.com/uEbHET5SqV
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 19, 2020
With Masahiro Tanaka on the injured list, Montgomery will have limited opportunities to impress so a strong outing against Boston is key. He was excellent in his exhibition tune-up versus the Mets, throwing five scoreless innings and striking out six. He’s made three career starts versus the Red Sox, but none since 2017, and this Boston lineup looks far different today than three years ago.
Player | AB | H | HR | RBI | K | AVG. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jose Peraza | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
Kevin Pillar | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .167 |
J.D. Martinez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
Xander Bogaerts | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .333 |
Christian Vazquez | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .750 |
Alex Verdugo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
Michael Chavis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
Andrew Benintendi | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 |
Jonathan Arauz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
Stash this away in the it’s way too early to draw conclusions box, but so far in 2020 the Red Sox have fared much better at home offensively. They’re hitting .285 at Fenway Park, compared to only .242 on the road.
The fact that Weber is Boston’s fourth starter tells you everything you need to know about this year’s Red Sox. Their pitching is well below league average on paper, and so far that’s exactly how they’ve looked.
Anthony Santander – Baltimore Orioles (1) 2-run
Distance: 401 ft
Exit Velocity: 102.7 mph
Launch Angle: 23° pic.twitter.com/sVYtgHDfoK— MLB Home Runs (@HomeRunVideos) July 26, 2020
The Yankees on the other hand, don’t have a weak spot in their lineup and are bound to feast on Weber early and often. Montgomery is a bit of a question mark on the mound, but he looked good enough heading into the season to not deter me from wanting to back New York here.
Pick: New York Yankees -1.5 (-115)
The post Red Sox vs Yankees Odds, Lines, and Spread – July 31 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.
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We are excited to bring to you our LOL DFS Game Theory. This piece of content is created to help breakdown each slate and label plays into four, very easy to follow, categories. Cash, Safe GPP/Upside, Low owned GPP and Fades. Utilizing this piece of content, along with DFS Karmas Esports Projection Portal and other DFS Karma LOL DFS content, will help make your lineup construction more effective and lead you to being more consistent in your DFS journey.
TOP | JNG | MID | ADC | SUP | TEAM |
Canna | Cuzz (SR) | Faker | Teddy | Effort | T1 |
New | XLB | Xiaohu | Gala | Ming | RNG |
Cube | Aix | Zeka | iBoy | Maestro | VG |
LangX | Peanut | Xiye | Kramer | Mark | LGD |
SoHwan | bon0 | Kuro | Aiming | TusiN | KT |
*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your LOL lineups. (SR=Sub Risk)
The post LoL DFS Game Theory 7/31 (LPL/LCK) appeared first on DFS Karma.
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MIG Run It Up Bankroll Challenge
7/30/2020 8:00 PM WNBA Basketball 678 Minnesota Lynx* +5 @ 1.926(5Dimes)
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Nick Shiambouros struck again when both his selections won at Saratoga including Sugar Fix who scored at 4.47 BSP. Nick returns to the Spa with two more fancies…
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MIG Run It Up Bankroll Challenge
7/29/2020 8:10 PM MLB Baseball 925 St. Louis Cardinals/Minnesota Twins* Under 10 @ 1.893 (5Dimes)
The post MIG Run It Up Bankroll Challenge appeared first on NFL Picks | NHL Picks | Hockey Predictions | Winning Sports Picks | MLB Predictions | NBA picks | MLB picks | Soccer Picks.
Debating over whether to invest in Clyde Edwards-Helaire futures was a popular offseason refrain of NFL bettors. Suddenly, though, putting some money down on the Kansas City Chiefs rookie running back out of LSU might be right up there with having bought Amazon.com as a penny stock.
Wednesday, veteran Chiefs running back Damien Williams informed the team that he was going to opt out of the 2020 NFL season over concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic. That is positioning Edwards-Helaire with the opportunity to run right into a role of prominence with the defending Super Bowl champions, and sportsbooks are taking notice.
The news ended up causing DraftKings to shorten the 2020 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds on Edwards-Helaire from +700 to +450. Meanwhile, FanDuel moved their NFL OROY betting line on the first-year back from +500 to +360.
Both online betting sites list Edwards-Helaire as the second-favorite in the 2020 NFL OROY odds behind his former LSU teammate, quarterback Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals.
Player (Team) | Odds at DraftKings | Odds at FanDuel |
---|---|---|
Joe Burrow (Bengals) | +225 | +230 |
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs) | +450 | +360 |
Tu Tagovailoa (Dolphins) | +800 | +800 |
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) | +800 | +1000 |
Cam Akers (Rams) | +1600 | +2000 |
Justin Herbert (Chargers) | +1600 | +2000 |
Jerry Jeudy (Broncos) | +1600 | +1500 |
CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) | +1600 | +1500 |
D’Andre Swift (Lions) | +1600 | +1500 |
Henry Ruggs III (Raiders) | +2000 | +2000 |
Ke’Shawn Vaughn (Buccaneers) | +2200 | +1500 |
Denzel Mims (Jets) | +5000 | +2000 |
Jalen Reagor (Eagles) | +2500 | +2000 |
Justin Jefferson (Vikings) | +2500 | +2000 |
Odds taken July 29th.
Edwards-Helaire was KC’s first-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.
Williams is the second KC starter to opt out. Guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif opted out previously. Once a player opts out of the season, they can’t opt back in.
Injuries hampered Williams last season. He appeared in 11 regular-season games, making six starts.
Statement from GM Brett Veach
“Damien Williams informed the club of his decision to opt out of the 2020 season.“ pic.twitter.com/dEQ2sUs9u2
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) July 29, 2020
However, his value soared in the postseason. Williams scored six playoff touchdowns. That included the last two during the Chiefs’ fourth-quarter rally to defeat the San Francisco 49ers.
Williams rushed for 104 yards in the Super Bowl victory.
Even before Williams made his decision, there was already a marked uptick in Edwards-Helaire value. Simply by being drafted to Kansas City, his NFL OROY odds immediately shortened from +1900 to +800.
If last year at LSU is any indication Clyde Edwards-Helaire will make the most of his opportunity with the Chiefs!
Last Season with LSU – (SEC Rank)
270 Touches (1st)
1,867 Scrimmage Yards (1st)
17 Scrimmage TDs (4th) pic.twitter.com/08Myic1UGa— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) July 29, 2020
No wonder. Looking at what the running back achieved last season with the national champion Tigers, he could put up some numbers. Edwards-Helaire finished first in the SEC in scrimmage yards (1,867) and touches (270). He rated fourth in the conference with 17 TDs from scrimmage.
There was a seismic shift in all of the betting odds on the Chiefs’ rookie runner. He dropped from +2500 to +750 to win NFL MVP. His odds of winning the NFL rushing title improved from +750 to +200.
Kansas City probably won’t make a move to add another veteran running back. The Chiefs already signed veteran runner DeAndre Washington as a free agent.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire now has a clear path to a workhorse role as a runner and receiver in the most explosive offense in the NFL.
A reminder: he is the only player in SEC history to have 1,000+ rushing yards and 50+ catches in a single season.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) July 29, 2020
Last season with the Oakland Raiders, Washington made three starts replacing an injured Josh Jacobs. In those three games, Washington produced 334 yards from scrimmage and scored two TDs.
As well, KC also returns veterans Darrel Williams and Darwin Thompson. That duo found the end zone five times in 2019.
Should you rush to get on the Edwards-Helaire bandwagon? Well, that depends.
Last season, the Chiefs tended to run just enough to keep defenses honest and allow QB Pat Mahomes to decimate them through the air.
Kansas City finished 23rd in the NFL with 1,569 yards gained on the ground. Williams led the team in rushing, rambling for a paltry 498 yards. KC’s 375 rush attempts rated 27th in the league.
In light of the Damien Williams opt out, here’s something interesting.
The Chiefs while in shotgun ran between the tackles for an NFL low 2.9 ypc.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire last season averaged 6.9 ypc on runs between the tackles in shotgun
— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) July 29, 2020
Does the presence of an A-list back like Edwards-Helaire change that philosophy? Let’s not forget that KC’s already-thin offensive line is missing Duvernay-Tardif.
Don’t jump on this hype train. Go down the board and take a price on a back that figures to get every opportunity to shine in an offense that’s designed to highlight a runner.
That would be Cam Akers of the Los Angeles Rams.
Pick: Cam Akers (Rams) +2000
The post Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s NFL OROY Odds Rapidly Changing After Damien Williams Opts Out appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.
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Nick Shiambouros was on the mark yesterday when his advice Alfatei won at Parx. Nick returns with two selections from the fantastic meeting at Saratoga…
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MIG Run It Up Bankroll Challenge
7/28/2020 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 959 Milwaukee Brewers/Pittsburgh Pirates* Under 10 @ 1.909 (5Dimes)
7/28/2020 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 963 Kansas City Royals/Detroit Tigers* Over 11 @ 2.000 (5Dimes)
The post MIG Run It Up Bankroll Challenge appeared first on NFL Picks | NHL Picks | Hockey Predictions | Winning Sports Picks | MLB Predictions | NBA picks | MLB picks | Soccer Picks.
MIG Run It Up Bankroll Challenge
7/28/2020 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 961 Game 2 Chicago White Sox/Cleveland Indians* Over 10½ @ 1.952 (5Dimes)
7/28/2020 7:30 PM MLB Baseball 967 New York Mets/Boston Red Sox* Under 11½ @ 2.000 (5Dimes)
7/28/2020 8:00 PM WNBA Basketball 665 Los Angeles Sparks* -5 @ 1.952 (5Dimes)
The post MIG Run It Up Bankroll Challenge appeared first on NFL Picks | NHL Picks | Hockey Predictions | Winning Sports Picks | MLB Predictions | NBA picks | MLB picks | Soccer Picks.
MIG Run It Up Bankroll Challenge
7/28/2020 6:40 PM MLB Baseball 955 Atlanta Braves/Tampa Bay Rays* Under 9 @ 1.870
7/28/2020 6:40 PM MLB Baseball 957 Chicago Cubs/Cincinnati Reds* Under 10½ @ 1.971
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The following are previews with betting tips for Super Rugby AU Round 5 & Aotearoa Round 8 of the 2020 Super Rugby season.
Compare Super Rugby Aotearoa odds
Compare Super Rugby AU odds
View the Super Rugby form guide
To take advantage of odds before they possibly shorten, these previews are published before the team sheets are announced. Those who are more risk-averse may prefer to wait for the squad lists before wagering.
Force vs. Rebels |
After putting in competitive losing performances in their first two fixtures the Force were thrashed 24-0 by the Brumbies in Sydney last week. While they were competitive in many aspects, the Perth side never really looked like scoring. The good news is the Force now have their first genuine home fixture when they host the Rebels at HBF Park in Perth.
The Rebels moved to 1-1-1 for the AU season with a 29-10 away win over the Waratahs. They led 19-10 at halftime before shutting the hosts out from the 24th-minute onward as the Waratahs suffered self-inflicted wounds through poor discipline, bad decision making and botched lineouts. It wasn’t a pretty game but the Rebels will be pleased to have picked up their first win of the campaign.
Betting: I expect the Rebels will win but the 1.25 odds are pretty short and I’m not confident on predicting the winning margin. The Force have come off second best in the second half in all three games so I would back the Rebels to win the second half at 1.41 (Unibet).
Confidence/value: low
Chiefs vs. Crusaders |
The Chiefs continued their habit of losing tight games when they fell 17-21 to the Blues in Auckland last week. It was their 7th win on the trot with all seven defeats coming by 1-12 points and six of those defeats coming by 1-7 points. They were left to rue several missed scoring opportunities as their next win continues to remain elusive. The Chiefs have also had a few bad calls go against them in recent weeks so they’re not nearly as far of the pace as their win-loss record makes it appear. In team news, Solomon Alaimalo is out for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury.
The Crusaders fell 32-34 to the Hurricanes last week to snap a 36-game unbeaten streak at home. Richie Mo’unga missed a late touchline conversion that would have sent the game into Super Time. The Crusaders outscored the visitors four tries to three but came unstuck with too many errors, lineout issues and defensive lapses. Their previous home defeat came back in 2016, coincidentally to the Hurricanes. The Crusaders are now 4-1 for the season while the Blues and Hurricanes are both 4-2. The Christchurch side has a game in hand over both of those sides so their future remains in their own hands.
Betting: the two most recent fixtures between the two were settled by 10 points or fewer and given the Chiefs’ recent track record of close fixtures, I would back both the Chiefs 1-12 at 4.50 (bet365, Sportsbet) and the Crusaders 1-12 at 3.00 (Sportsbet). Those looking for more risk could simply back the Crusaders 1-12 selection.
Confidence/value: medium
Brumbies vs. Reds |
The Brumbies maintained their perfect start to the AU competition with a 24-0 win over the Force at a neutral venue in Sydney. They are now 3-0 for the competition with a six-game winning streak spanning this campaign and the pre-covid Super Rugby season. Winger Tom Wright had a field day in attack but the most impressive stat is the zero points conceded. The Brumbies have now won eight straight against domestic opposition. I wrote last week that it’s ominous that the Brumbies continue to win despite showing room for improvement and it was the case again against the Force, with lineout mistakes, scrum penalties and breakdown infringements keeping the Force in the game.
Prior to their bye last week the Reds defeated a spirited Force side 31-24 in Brisbane. It was a highly entertaining game that helped to erase memories of their dour draw with the Rebels the week before. The Reds are now 2-1-0 for the campaign after a home win over the Waratahs and away draw against the Rebels. The Reds can be genuine Super Rugby AU contenders if they cut down on their mistakes.
Betting: the Reds have won three of their last four but those three wins were at home. The Queensland side has gone 0-1-4 away from Brisbane over the last 12 months and 0-4 as the away underdog. They have lost their last six trips to Canberra. The Brumbies meanwhile have gone 8-1 in 2020. I would back the Brumbies in the head-to-head at 1.36 (Unibet).
Confidence/value: medium
Highlanders vs. Blues |
Prior to their bye last week the Highlanders overturned a 24-point deficit to stun the Chiefs 33-31 in Hamilton. They showed moments of brilliance during the match as the side continues to perform more competitively than expected given the dearth of All Blacks in the squad. The Highlanders are now 2-3 for the Super Rugby Aotearoa campaign with both of their wins coming over the Chiefs.
The Blues snapped a 2-game losing streak by defeating the Chiefs 21-17 last week to move to 4-2 for the competition. They jumped out to a 14-0 lead before the Chiefs fought back to make the game competitive. The win was the Blues’ fourth straight at Eden Park. They will be looking to end their two-game losing streak away from Auckland. Preceding that they enjoyed a five-game winning streak away from home.
Betting: the Highlanders have lost 8 of their last 11 games while the Blues have won 8 of their last 10. I would back the Blues in the head-to-head at 1.56 (Sportsbet). Given all nine previous meetings between the two in Dunedin were settled by 1-12 points, for those looking for more risk I would back the Blues 1-12 at 2.80 (bet365).
Confidence/value: medium
Brumbies in the head-to-head at 1.36 (Unibet)
The post Super Rugby AU Round 5 & Aotearoa Round 8 Preview & Betting Tips appeared first on Australia Sports Betting.